Here are my five for the Cup.

1. Flemington R7 — #14 Soul Of Spain (Barrier 5 | Tommy Berry)

• Odds: $34.00 Win / $8.00 Place

• The Profile: Ran a narrow 0.3L second over 3200m at Randwick on 11 April, closing from the back of the field. He has stepped up in trip steadily this prep, five runs culminating in the 2400m Caulfield Cup. All green sectionals with no red splits, which is the stamina profile you want over two miles.

• Map & Tactics: He fits two historical trends. Barrier 5 has a Cup-leading 10 wins, most recently Knight’s Choice in 2024, and 54.5kg has been carried by eight previous winners. Tommy Berry takes the ride, 0-2-0 on him from four starts.

• Failure Mode: If the leader crawls and turns the two miles into a 600m sprint, a horse finishing from the back can run out of room and time.

• The Foundation Verdict: The best combination of price, stamina and historical profile in the field. At $8.00 for the place, he’s the lead each-way play of the five.

2. Flemington R7 — #6 Enfjaar (Barrier 8 | Ray Dawson)

• Odds: $21.00 Win / $6.00 Place

• The Profile: Built for the two miles after a strong third in the Caulfield Cup, beaten just 1L and still running on. A clean late-speed profile with no red sectionals.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 8 is the third-most successful barrier in Cup history with seven wins, most recently Half Yours in 2025. Ray Dawson is 1-0-2 on him from four starts.

• Failure Mode: The 56kg is a genuine test. Without A Fight (56.5kg in 2023) and Gold Trip (57.5kg in 2022) have carried more and won, but 56kg on a Soft 5 gets heavy in the final 200m.

• The Foundation Verdict: The class is clear and the late speed is there. The weight makes the outright win harder, but it’s a strong place profile at $6.00.

3. Flemington R7 — #11 Juja Kibo (Barrier 14 | Sam Clipperton)

• Odds: $11.00 Win / $3.50 Place

• The Profile: Came from 14th to win over 2500m at Flemington last start, with green splits through the final 400m. That’s the late-race stamina this race demands, on this track.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 14 has produced four winners, the last being Makybe Diva in 2005, and 55kg last won with Fiorente in 2013. Sam Clipperton is 2-1-1 on him from four starts and knows exactly when to press the button.

• Failure Mode: The 3200m is the big query. He finished 6L off the winner in his only attempt at the trip. If he doesn’t see it out, the late speed disappears.

• The Foundation Verdict: The shortest price of the five, built on course form and late sectional speed. If he runs the trip, he’s right in the finish.

4. Flemington R7 — #23 Zakouma (Barrier 10 | William Pike)

• Odds: $31.00 Win / $8.00 Place

• The Profile: Finished last prep with a big win over 2800m, storming home from 12th, with sustained green splits from the 800m through to the 400m. The Cup is his last assignment this preparation.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 10 has produced five winners, most recently Protectionist in 2014. His light 52kg matches what Vow And Declare carried to win in 2019. William Pike takes the ride, 1-0-0 from five rides overall.

• Failure Mode: He needs clear air for Pike to wind him up. Coming from the back half of a 24-horse field, traffic is almost certain.

• The Each-Way Verdict: Sustained speed and a lightweight historical profile at a big price. $8.00 for the place pays well for the traffic risk.

5. Flemington R7 — #21 Strictly Business (Barrier 4 | Dean Yendall)

• Odds: $81.00 Win / $18.00 Place

• The Profile: The wildcard of the five. His form is patchy (1x5802x000), but he brings a genuine lightweight profile into a race where the historical map favours it.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 4 lets Dean Yendall save ground on the inside. With just 53kg, he can sit quietly and do no work in the run.

• Failure Mode: He may simply lack the class of the top stayers when the whips are cracking at the 200m.

• The Each-Way Verdict: A long shot, and priced like one. $18.00 for the place is the reason he’s here. He only needs to find the frame to pay.

Odds as of 09:20 AM ACDT, 01/11.

No eight-leg Hail Mary multis, and no slips deleted on a Sunday morning. Every selection below was published before the first race, and every result stands, good or bad.

Saturday 10th October 2026 — 3 / 6 placed

1. In’kantosstar — $4.00 win / $1.50 place ✅

2. Jacaranda — $7.00 win / $2.20 place ✅

3. Moonlight Circus — $13.00 win / $3.30 place ❌

4. Barrengarry — $3.19 win / $1.30 place ✅

5. Dr Farthing — $3.30 win / $1.40 place ❌

6. Militarize — $4.40 win / $1.45 place ❌

Saturday 17th October 2026 — 3 / 6 placed

1. It’s A Knockout — $3.30 win / $1.40 place ✅

2. Pin Up Sheila — $3.70 win / $1.50 place ✅

3. Polymnia — $4.20 win / $1.70 place ❌

4. Tikkamos — $6.00 win / $1.70 place ❌

5. Signature Scent — $7.00 win / $1.95 place ❌

6. Cardonette — $2.80 win / $1.30 place ✅

Saturday 24th October 2026 — 1 / 6 placed

1. Mailata — $15.00 win / $3.90 place ✅

2. Hierarchy — $8.50 win / $2.45 place ❌

3. White Pointer — $4.40 win / $1.85 place ❌

4. Harry’s Evidence — $6.00 win / $1.70 place ❌

5. Von Hauke — $13.00 win / $3.40 place ❌

6. Osipenko — $7.82 win / $2.40 place ❌

Saturday 31st October 2026 — 3 / 6 placed

1. She Moves Too — $4.00 win / $1.40 place ❌

2. Just In Time — $10.00 win / $3.30 place ❌

3. Thinkhardandfast — $4.60 win / $1.75 place ✅

4. Last Command — $5.50 win / $2.05 place ❌

5. Geegees Mistruth — $9.00 win / $3.00 place ✅

6. Ser Joh — $7.50 win / $2.30 place ✅

The best of the month: Mailata at $3.90 for the place on a tough 24th. Three Saturdays out of four returned half the card in the places.

• Odds: $4.00 Win / $1.40 Place 🚀

• The Profile: Second fastest in the field, with green sectionals at the 800m and again from the 400m to the line. There’s no soft patch in the middle and no fade late. She holds her speed right through the run.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 6 is an ideal launching pad for Zac Lloyd over the sprint trip. She doesn’t need to be ridden aggressively to find clear air. Zac can slot in three-pairs back with cover, track the early tempo and produce her outside the 350m.

• Failure Mode: If the leader crawls and turns it into a 300m dash, she risks being pocketed with nowhere to go.

• The Foundation Verdict: The place price is short, but this is the strongest profile on the early card. Speed, a clean draw and no red splits make her the anchor leg to open the day.

2. Randwick R4 — #8 Just In Time (Barrier 7 | Zac Lloyd)

• Odds: $10.00 Win / $3.30 Place

• The Profile: Not a ratings standout. She’s sixth fastest, 1.8 km/h off the top. What she does have is consistency: no red sectionals anywhere and a green split at the 800m, so there’s no flat spot for the opposition to exploit.

• Map & Tactics: Zac Lloyd is at his best riding patient, mid-pack stalking races. Barrier 7 gives him room to drop into the running line without burning fuel to cross. With a genuine tempo up front, her even rhythm picks off the tiring runners from the 200m.

• Failure Mode: She lacks an explosive turn of foot. If they walk and sprint, sharper types will out-kick her late.

• The Each-Way Verdict: A price play. $3.30 for the place on a runner with no red sectionals is overs on the data. She needs the tempo to suit, and the place odds pay you for that risk.

3. Doomben R3 — #9 Thinkhardandfast (Barrier 1 | Ben Thompson)

• Odds: $4.60 Win / $1.75 Place

• The Profile: Second fastest in the field and only 0.3 km/h off the top mark, with green splits through the 600m and 400m. The one knock is a red final split, a drop of just under 3 km/h over the last section.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 1 around the tight Doomben bends is gold with Ben Thompson in the irons. He won’t spend an ounce of energy finding position. He takes the box seat behind the leaders and lets the field fan wide on the turn.

• Failure Mode: That late drop. If Thompson is locked on the fence behind a tiring leader, he could be held up exactly when the sprint goes on.

• The Foundation Verdict: The map does the heavy lifting. The rail run saves the energy the final-split drop says he’ll need, which makes him a high-percentage anchor alongside the day’s bigger-priced plays.

4. Doomben R8 — #5 Last Command (Barrier 10 | Ben Thompson)

• Odds: $5.50 Win / $2.05 Place

• The Profile: Third fastest, about 0.7 km/h off the top, with green sectionals from the 400m to the line and no red anywhere. The watch point is a 3.9 km/h drop in the final split.

• Map & Tactics: Thompson’s hardest steering job of the day. Barrier 10 at Doomben is tricky, and he can’t afford to be caught three-wide without cover on the bend. He either slides forward into the one-one or snags back and tracks into the race on a three-wide trail.

• Failure Mode: Ground loss. Stranded wide and punching the breeze, the extra work drains what’s needed to hold off the inside runners late.

• The Each-Way Verdict: The sectionals rate this a genuine top-three chance, and $2.05 for the place is fair for that. The wide draw is the risk you’re being paid for, and you’re trusting Thompson to solve it early.

5. Flemington R9 — #1 Geegees Mistruth (Barrier 13 | William Pike)

• Odds: $9.00 Win / $3.00 Place

• The Profile: The highest-risk play on the card. She’s tenth on the speed ranking but only 0.7 km/h off the fastest, in a tightly bunched field. Red at the 800m, then green from the 600m to the 200m. The final split drops around 5 km/h, so if she’s over-worked early there’s nothing left.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 13 on the Flemington straight. By late afternoon on Derby Day I expect the stand-side outside rail to be the place to be, and Pike has drawn right into it. He won’t have to burn energy crossing. He can sit on the back of the outside speed and hold her together until the 300m.

• Failure Mode: Over-racing. If Pike lights her up before the 300m, she hits the wall inside the final 50m.

• The Each-Way Verdict: A map-and-price play rather than a ratings play. If the outside rail is the best ground, the draw offsets the late fade, and $3.00 for the place pays well for the risk.

​6. Doomben R10 — #6 Ser Joh (Barrier 2 | Ben Thompson)

• Odds: $7.50 Win / $2.30 Place

• The Profile: Second fastest in the field, around 0.4 km/h off the top, with green splits at the 800–600m and 200m and no red anywhere. The concern is a 5.29 km/h drop in the final split, the biggest late fade of our six.

• Map & Tactics: Barrier 2 at Doomben is an armchair ride. Thompson can stalk the speed on the fence without covering extra ground, and the energy saved by railing is exactly what offsets that late drop.

• Failure Mode: A wall of horses. If the leader stops in his face at the 200m, Thompson needs a split-second gap.

• The Foundation Verdict: A second-fastest profile with the box-seat draw. The final-split drop is real, but the map is built to cover it, making this the strongest anchor to close the card.

​Live Execution & Ticket Links

All six bullets above are being deployed live on Dabble. If you want to tail the plays without punching them in manually, hit the share links below to instantly copy the slips:

• 🎯 The Saturday Conviction Multi: Top 3 bullets of the day, She Moves Too, Thinkhardandfast and Ser Joh, rolled into a calculated place multi. Best barrier maps, green sectionals, zero lottery fluff. Tap here to COPY the Conviction Multi

• ​🚀 The $1 Bullet All-Up: All six Saturday bullets rolled into one place all-up. Form done, maps checked, pure loose-coin fun. Tap here to COPY the $1 All-Up

Odds as of 09:20 AM ACDT, 31/10.

If you want a tip in every race, you’re in the wrong place. If you want six carefully filtered each-way selections and the reasoning behind every one, welcome aboard.

Why “The Steering Wheel”?

A fast horse is the engine. The jockey and the map are the steering. Plenty of horses with the speed to win never get the chance, because they’re stuck three-wide, held up on the fence or ridden out of rhythm. I start with the sectionals, but the steering is what decides whether I back a horse.

Every Saturday

Six selections from across the Australian metropolitan tracks, in your inbox before the first race. Each one is broken down the same way:

• Odds: the win and place price at the time of posting.

• The Profile: what the sectional data says. Where the horse ranks on speed, where it’s strong and where it’s weak.

• Map & Tactics: how the race should unfold, covering the barrier, the early speed, where the jockey settles and where the run comes from.

• Failure Mode: the most likely way it gets beaten. Every selection gets one.

• The Verdict: the Foundation Verdict for the three strongest selections of the day, and the Each-Way Verdict for the three value plays.

The Record

Every selection is published before the jump and never edited afterwards. Wins, places and misses all go on the All-Time Record page [link], and each month gets its own full results post. Nothing gets deleted on a Sunday morning.

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